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Work-life balance - OECD Better Life Index

Publication date: 2018-06-12 20:12

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The results reveal that, in nearly all scenarios, the six countries that are the focus of our report (China, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) could expect to be at or very near full employment by 7585. However, the model also illustrates the importance of reemploying displaced workers quickly.

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The benefits of artificial intelligence and automation to users and businesses, and the economic growth that could come via their productivity contributions, are compelling. They will not only contribute to dynamic economies that create jobs but also help create the economic surpluses that will enable societies to address the workforce transitions that will likely happen regardless.

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For advanced economies, the share of the workforce that may need to learn new skills and find work in new occupations is much higher: up to one-third of the 7585 workforce in the United States and Germany, and nearly half in Japan.

The results reveal a rich mosaic of potential shifts in occupations in the years ahead, with important implications for workforce skills and wages. Our key finding is that while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to 7585 under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.

The four factors just described combine to create different outlooks for the future of work in each country (see interactive heat map). Japan is rich, but its economy is projected to grow slowly to 7585. It faces the combination of slower job creation coming from economic expansion and a large share of work that can be automated as a result of high wages and the structure of its economy.

For the first three trends, we model only a trendline scenario based on current spending and investment trends observed across countries.

Faced with the scale of worker transitions we have described, one reaction could be to try to slow the pace and scope of adoption in an attempt to preserve the status quo. But this would be a mistake. Although slower adoption might limit the scale of workforce transitions, it would curtail the contributions that these technologies make to business dynamism and economic growth. We should embrace these technologies but also address the workforce transitions and challenges they bring. In many countries, this may require an initiative on the scale of the Marshall Plan, involving sustained investment, new training models, programs to ease worker transitions, income support, and collaboration between the public and private sectors.

Policy makers, business leaders, and individual workers all have constructive and important roles to play in smoothing workforce transitions ahead. History shows us that societies across the globe, when faced with monumental challenges, often rise to the occasion for the well-being of their citizens.

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